4 min read
In this episode, we explore a deceptively simple but critical question for business leaders: are we ignoring the warning signs that are right in front of us? Using real-world examples, from global supply chain shocks to everyday business performance, we reflect on how often leaders wait for problems to fully materialise before taking action, even when the signals have been there for months.
We work through the concept of lead and lag indicators, highlighting how most businesses focus too heavily on backward-looking metrics such as revenue and cash, rather than the upstream signals that truly shape future performance. Along the way, we share practical examples, candid reflections, and a few light-hearted analogies to bring home a serious point: better decisions come from paying attention earlier, and having the courage to act on what we see.
You can listen to the full episode here
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Key Topics Discussed:
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Why businesses often ignore obvious warning signs until it’s too late
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The difference between lag indicators (cash, revenue) and lead indicators (pipeline, enquiries)
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How external events (e.g. supply chain disruption) mirror internal business behaviour
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The risks of relying on outdated or delayed data
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Psychological bias: why leaders dismiss uncomfortable truths
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The full commercial pipeline, from marketing activity through to cash, and where to focus attention
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The importance of questioning assumptions and avoiding “false comfort” metrics
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Why reacting early is often less costly than reacting late
Who Is This Episode For:
This episode is aimed at business owners, directors, and senior leaders, particularly those responsible for sales, finance, and strategy. It will resonate with anyone looking to build a more resilient business, improve forecasting, and make better-informed decisions before challenges become crises.
Quotes to Remember:
“You can have all the leading indicators and all the evidence pointing in a certain direction, but if you’re not prepared to listen to it as a leader… it’s too late.”
“If you do a really good monthly performance, it doesn’t mean you’re having a good month, it just means you’ve finished last month’s good performance.”
“Every pound of revenue started life as a signal.”
Actionable Takeaways:
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Map your full commercial pipeline, from first enquiry through to cash, and identify your true lead indicators
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Track upstream metrics regularly (e.g. enquiries, pipeline value, quotes issued), not just revenue and profit
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Reduce reporting lag: aim for faster, more real-time visibility of key numbers
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Challenge your assumptions, especially when performance appears strong
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Build a habit of acting on early signals, even when it feels uncomfortable or premature
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Run scenario planning exercises to prepare for potential downturns or disruptions
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Review sales pipeline health (including ageing deals and conversion rates) to avoid “false positives”
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Invest in marketing and sales activity early if you see a dip coming, rather than cutting costs too late
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